Who is going to win

Trump will lose.

Lets take a look at how trump did in 2016, which states are battleground states, which states are already coloured and what the public opinion in a state already is and how both candidates do in national polls.
In 2016 Trump won by 306 to 232 (63 mil. trump to 66 mil. hillary).
Below youll see states which were won by trump by a margin of 5% or less.

Arizona 11 delegates
In 2016 Trump won Arizona by 91k votes which was 3.5% more than Hillary. Biden is leading on average by 4-5% since March 2020. https://prnt.sc/upibf5
Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 150k votes. https://prnt.sc/upicuk
Moreover Arizona has an aging problem (https://www.azdhs.gov/documents/prevention/tobacco-chronic-disease/healthy-aging/reports-statistics/az-healthy-aging-plan-2014-2018.pdf) Which benefits Biden.
In the midterm of 2018 the congressional district 2nd flipped to democratic by a margin of 9%!

Florida 29 delegates
In 2016 Trump won Florida by 113k votes which translates to 1.1%. Biden has been leading on average since March 2020. https://prnt.sc/upim2k
Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 297k votes. https://prnt.sc/upimn1
In the midterms of 2018, the congressional districts 26th and 27th flipped from republican to democratic by margins of 4-6%.

Georgia 16 delegates
In 2016 Trump won Georgia by 211k votes which translates to 5,1%. Trump has been leading in Georgia in the polls but it is a close race. https://prnt.sc/upit70
Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 147k votes. https://prnt.sc/upitx5.
In the midterms of 2018, the congressional districs 6th flipped to democratic by 1% margin and another was merely lost by 0.05%

Michigan 16 delegates
In 2016 Trump won michigan by 10k votes which translates to 0.2%. Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 250k votes. https://prnt.sc/upixeu
Biden has been leading Michigan in the polls since ever and the margin is around 10%!! https://prnt.sc/upiyve
In the midterms of 2018, the districts 8th and 11th flipped to democratic by margins of 4 to 7%

North Carolina 15 delegates
In 2016 Trump won N C by 173k votes which translates to 3.6%. Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 190k votes. https://prnt.sc/upj1dt
Biden has been leading in N. C. throughout the year but the race is really close. https://prnt.sc/upj2k1
In the midterms of 2018 , the 9th district of north carolina almost flipped to democratic losing only to a margin of 0.32%.

Pennsylvania 20 delegates
In 2016 Trump won P.A by 44k votes which translates to 0.72%. Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 263k votes. https://prnt.sc/upj48w
Biden has been leading Pennsylvania throughout the year by margins of 5%+ https://prnt.sc/upj658

Wisconsin 10
In 2016 Trump won Wisconsin by 22k votes which translates to 0.77%. Independents who voted in 2016 were as much as 187k votes. https://prnt.sc/upj7rr
Biden has been leading Wisconsin by a huge margin of 7% throughout the year. https://prnt.sc/upj8yr

The senate elections
Currently the republicans possess 53 seats and democrats 45, independents 2 seats.
In 2020 elections 35 seats are up for elections.
Republicans will be defending 23 of their seats and democrats 12 of their seats. The democrats only need to win 3 or 4 seats to gain senate majority.

Furthermore, young voters (Generations Y and Z) tend to be more leaning towards the democrats than the republicans. https://prnt.sc/upjixq
So between both elections time has passed, which means more elderly who are leaning towards republicans have passed away.

If all states below margins of 5% in 2016 do not count:
Republican: 186 delegates (in 2016 306 delegates)
Democrats: 205 delegates (in 2016 232 delegates)

I would say the democrats have to fuck up really hard to not win the elections. And even if they lose the presidential elections, they still have a huge chance to win majority in congress.

It'll be a close one, but Biden is leading in Mich/Wisc/Penn. If Trump doesn't win one of those, and also doesn't win all of Flor/Ariz/NC/Iowa/Ohio, he is screwed.

You do know that polls do not really matter, right? Last election Hillary lead in the polls as well. Media will always show Liberal candidates in a good light.

Напишано од DeepFriedUnicorn, 28.09.2020 at 11:26

It was like you were ranting instead of talking

I'll take that as a begrudging 'yes'.

Напишано од ITSGG1122, 28.09.2020 at 15:25

Trump will lose. Lets take a look at how trump did in 2016, which states are battleground states, which states are already coloured and what the public opinion in a state already is and how both candidates do in national polls

Polls generally aren't trustworthy, especially not in volatile social climates. People have to sign up to these phone call's which means they are politically active. People they ring that didn't sign up, but also support Trump, aren't going to readily admit it. There is a perception, which is correct, that it's not safe to admit being a Trump supporter. Cities are burning, amid a raging pandemic and with no end in sight. People in response will hold their nose and vote someone who promises 'Order'. This is why Boris Johnson won in a landslide in Britain despite Jeremy Corbyn being a much better candidate. Biden doesn't offer 'Order'. He doesn't offer anything and is seen as sympathetic to the riots. In the debate, he offered absolutely nothing. Imagine debating environmental policies while cities are burning. Fucking imagine what the average person thought of Biden as he talks about climate change in a mostly empty room caused by a pandemic.

A progressive think tank did some study on middle class moderate women to test what they thought of BLM, and they all began unanimously talking about their worries of house prices dropping and rising crime.That's the perception among middle class female moderates. What do you think it's going to be among the working class? I suspect the turnout will drop like a stone and many people will not even vote. Biden has no strong base and even Antifa wants Trump to win because they see him as an accelerationist.

I don't want Trump to win but the DNC has been a disaster, and I suspect, there are Zionist insiders deliberately sabotaging Biden's campaign to ensure Trump wins.

Напишано од Lord Aragorn, 02.10.2020 at 00:42

You do know that polls do not really matter, right? Last election Hillary lead in the polls as well. Media will always show Liberal candidates in a good light.

She was leading yes, but not by the same amount Biden is leading currently. Biden both has a higher popular vote lead and a higher lead in the Rust Belt states than Clinton did. Granted, Clinton had the same lead in Wisconsin in 2016 that Biden has in 2020, so perhaps the polls in Wisconsin are off by 5 points. But she was only barely leading in Mich/Penn, and thus lost to Trump. Biden's current lead in Mich/Penn seems to 3.5 points higher than Clintons' was (+5.5 Biden vs +2 Clinton) and seems a bit too high for Trump to beat. Biden will probably win those states but it'll be a close one.

Trump most likely will win in texas/flo/nc/iowa/georgia/ohio and probably arizona too. So he's doing better than the media is saying. But he needs at least 1 of the 3 big Rust Belt states (Mich/Wisc/Penn) to win, and he is an underdog in all of them. If he loses in anyone of the states he is predicted to win in, it'll be much harder for him to win the election.

Напишано од Tik-Tok, 02.10.2020 at 12:50

Напишано од ITSGG1122, 28.09.2020 at 15:25

Trump will lose. Lets take a look at how trump did in 2016, which states are battleground states, which states are already coloured and what the public opinion in a state already is and how both candidates do in national polls

Polls generally aren't trustworthy, especially not in volatile social climates. People have to sign up to these phone call's which means they are politically active. People they ring that didn't sign up, but also support Trump, aren't going to readily admit it. There is a perception, which is correct, that it's not safe to admit being a Trump supporter. Cities are burning, amid a raging pandemic and with no end in sight. People in response will hold their nose and vote someone who promises 'Order'. This is why Boris Johnson won in a landslide in Britain despite Jeremy Corbyn being a much better candidate. Biden doesn't offer 'Order'. He doesn't offer anything and is seen as sympathetic to the riots. In the debate, he offered absolutely nothing. Imagine debating environmental policies while cities are burning. Fucking imagine what the average person thought of Biden as he talks about climate change in a mostly empty room caused by a pandemic.

A progressive think tank did some study on middle class moderate women to test what they thought of BLM, and they all began unanimously talking about their worries of house prices dropping and rising crime.That's the perception among middle class female moderates. What do you think it's going to be among the working class? I suspect the turnout will drop like a stone and many people will not even vote. Biden has no strong base and even Antifa wants Trump to win because they see him as an accelerationist.

I don't want Trump to win but the DNC has been a disaster, and I suspect, there are Zionist insiders deliberately sabotaging Biden's campaign to ensure Trump wins.

Ok, so generally polls arent trustworthy, and thats true because you said that?
Now lets have a look at the facts. https://prnt.sc/uslhg1
So 4% off since 1998 on average. To my knowledge, opinions mean shit. Argue with me with facts.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

But at this point, which is prior to the election, things with the polls get a little bonkers